All You Need To Know #15

The 2020 US Presidential Election

In the Six States That Matter, Biden was up 2.7% two weeks ago, 3% last week, and 3.6% as of today. That’s up a full percentage point in two weeks.

Meanwhile, the puts Biden’s chances at 75% likely this week, up from 70% last week and 69% the week before. (A week where he even hit 67% for one day)

But as usual, we need to dig underneath those numbers to get a clearer sense of what’s happening.

According to RealClearPolitics, Biden has a lead between 4.2% and 6.3% percent in four of the battleground states. The other two are North Carolina and Florida, where he has leads of 0.8% and 1.2%, respectively. So let’s award those two states to Trump, just to be cautious. Where does that leave Trump? With a Biden win. Ok, what if we decide Michigan, with a 4.2% lead for Biden, also votes Trump? He still loses.

So that’s where we stand right now: Trump could win four out of six battleground states and still lose. But the data is telling the reverse story right now, that Biden is up in all six, and only two are close. So that’s the good news, electorally-speaking.

There’s also a new development to keep an eye on, one that surprised me and most people watching the election: the Trump campaign is struggling to raise money. The Biden campaign raised $364 million dollars in August, shattering the previous record of $193 million set by Obama’s campaign in 2008, and nearly doubling their previous month’s total.

The Trump campaign raised just $210 million. This week the New York Times reported on over the last few years, and found that at least $800 million has already been spent. Combine these weak fund raising numbers with the fact that the campaign has gone dark in many battleground states, and it adds up to something fishy. At just the moment when Trump should be flush with cash, the campaign is struggling to stay afloat. That’s the financial good news.

And as all this is happening, Trump continues to ensnare himself in controversy. This is the week that The Atlantic reported that Trump calls veterans suckers and losers. He tried to deny it, but the problem is he’s said as much on the record, multiple times. Just as that was dying down, Bob Woodward released excerpts of his book where Trump said he was playing down the Coronavirus threat. Then, the next day, another excerpt shows Trump saying he covered for a Saudi Prince that killed an American journalist. I could go on.

But the most hilarious thing about the Bob Woodward interview, to me, is that Trump insisted on them. When Bob Woodward wrote his first book, Trump raged that he wasn’t allowed an interview. So this time he gave 18 interviews, believing he could charm Woodward into seeing his point of view. And as a result, really damaging audio keeps coming out that Trump can’t deny. What a Trumpian story.

Imagine waking up this morning being Donald Trump. You’re losing, and you know it. You can’t count on anyone anymore, not even Fox News. You’re way behind in the national polling, and losing outside the margin of error in the swing states. Your campaign is broke right as your opponent is shattering fund-raising records and blanketing the airwaves. Your law and order rhetoric isn’t working like you wanted it to. Coronavirus is still out of control and about 200,000 American deaths are being blamed on you. Nothing you say works, and in fact even seems to be making your problems worse. The best news you can come up with is that Florida, a state you can’t afford to lose and usually votes for a Republican, moved into a tie this week. Everything else is bad.

That’s the reality Trump keeps waking up to. And that’s the good news for people who are ready for a change. And if , that group may be much, much larger than we currently realise.

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