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All You Need To Know #16
This will be an interesting week, because the dynamics of the race are about to change a lot due to Ruth Bader Ginsburg’s passing yesterday evening. So let’s take stock of where we are before all the numbers change over the next few weeks.
FiveThirtyEight’s forecast puts Trump’s chance of winning at 23%, the lowest it’s been since the 28th of June. RealClearPolitics’s battleground polling has him up by 3.9%, which means he’s on an month-long downswing on that poll as well. As always, it’s the details that tell a more complete story of how strongly Biden is running right now.
Biden is up 6.7% in Wisconsin, 5% in Arizona, and 4.8% in Wisconsin. Those three states are enough for Biden to win, and that’s without even counting North Carolina, Florida, and Minnesota. (Which are also all showing Biden leads.) So that’s good news.
(Side story: Biden did a town hall this week and impressed everyone. So much so that people on the right are convinced he memorised the questions beforehand and memorised his answers. This is hilarious because you cannot simultaneously push a theory that he’s senile but also illegally memorising entire townhalls for an unfair advantage.)
But of course the big news of the week is that Ruth Bader Ginsburg died and Trump wants to put another conservative justice on the court to replace her. I’ve been pleased to see the conventional wisdom in the mainstream media pretty similar to my point of…
