All You Need To Know #18

The 2020 US Presidential Election

This is the week Donald Trump was hospitalised with Covid. And it’s not just him. A lot of other Republicans have become sick as well, and evidence is mounting that Amy Coney Barrett’s formal nomination in the Rose Garden was the super-spreader event that’s to blame. So that’s huge.

Trump’s chance of winning is at an all-time low

538 is currently putting his chances at 20%. His high-water mark was in late July, but he’s been on a downward slide since then.

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The debate

Earlier in the week, Trump turned in what was called the worst debate performance of all time. He bullied, heckled, and interrupted for a painful 90 minutes. Biden was seen as the winner by wide margins, and even the president’s own allies expressed dismay at his performance.

Analysing what comes next

There are a lot of forks in the road to consider. Trump could die. Trump could become ill enough that it affects his campaigning. Trump could make a full recovery. Maybe the Supreme Court seat is filled, maybe it isn’t because they don’t have enough Republican senators available to vote. Maybe the stimulus passes, maybe it doesn’t. Maybe Biden gets Covid, maybe he doesn’t. There are a lot of moving parts at play here.

  • Then you have 53 senators voting, but three are out of commission, so they are on thin ice there.
  • Remote voting in the Senate is not currently allowed.
  • People testing positive are going to quarantine for ten days, and ten days is coincidentally when the process is set to proceed.
  • Chuck Grassley, age 87, is refusing to get tested despite coming in contact with people who have Covid. Burr, the attorney general, has made the same decision.

A note on conspiracy theories

One of the lasting legacies from modern politics and Trump in particular is how no one knows what to believe anymore. I’ve had a very frustrating few days trying to explain to my friends that Trump actually has Covid, and that it’s not a giant hoax. How do I know? Because this is Trump 101.

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