All You Need To Know #19
The whole reason for this series was to share good news weekly, where “good” is defined as “Trump losing in a landslide of epic proportions.” But there was a caveat to that, of course: it was still important to be truthful. If Biden was losing in a swing state, it was important to call it out. If Trump was executing well on a potent strategy, there was no reason to pretend it wasn’t happening. And that can lead to a tension between “good news” and “reporting the facts.”
There is no such tension this week.
Last week, FiveThirtyEight said Trump’s chances were 20%. This week it’s dropped to an all-time low of 14%.
RealClearPolitics puts Biden’s swing state lead at 4.5%, which is high as it’s been since August 9th.
The House is solidly in the hands of the Democrats, where they may even pick up seats. The Senate is still close, but currently favours the Democrats. The race for the White House is very much not close. As of today, electoral-vote predicts Biden will win with 356 electoral votes.
The fact that Georgia is leaning Democratic and Ohio is a toss-up is still a bit too rosy for my tastes, but at this point it’s academic. If Florida tips to Biden, that’s the end of the contest. If he gets Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, and Ohio, that looks like the end of the modern Republican party. Then if Texas tips in 4 or 8 years, that’s the end of the future of the Republican party as well.
There was also a VP debate. Harris’ numbers started higher than Pence’s, and went higher afterward. Trump came home from the hospital and has been rage-calling TV shows, to no appreciable effect. The second debate was canceled by Trump even though it would have helped him. The stimulus bill was canceled, even though it would have helped him. Then he backtracked, but now Republicans are outraged about it, so he’ll have to give up on his last big chance to put money in the pockets of the American people before the election. Trump is trying to get his Attorney General to punish his political rivals, which is literally illegal and impeachable. The AG is pushing back and saying nothing will happen before the election. Bombshell reports about Trump’s taxes are coming several times a week, and somehow they’re getting worse. More GOP leaders are refusing testing for Covid, knowing that if they are positive it’ll mess up their chances at seating a a new Supreme Court judge. That’s not polling well for them. Nothing really is.
And that’s the good news. For all the fire and the fury, for all the distractions, the lies, the head-fakes, and reality TV dramas and intrigues, nothing is sticking. Nothing is working. Trump will lose. Bigly. And then we can build back better. Hang tight, we’re almost there.