All You Need To Know #20

Last week, FiveThirtyEight estimated Donald Trump’s chances at 14%, and this week it’s dropped to 13%.

RealClearPolitics had Biden up 4.5% in the battleground states last week, and it’s 4.5% right now (after rising to 5% earlier in the week).

Last night Trump and Biden had dueling town halls. Biden made waves for answering in long, considered ways. A Trump spokeperson said it reminded them of Mr. Rogers, not realising that Mr. Rogers is not an insult. And certainly not in 2020. Meanwhile, Trump was Trump. He didn’t condemn QAnon, he got testy when asked to condemn white supremicists, he lied a lot. The ratings are out, and Biden beat Trump handedly. So that was that.

I really appreciated this thread on Twitter. In it, the author cites charts and graphs to explain that Biden’s lead isn’t because people hate Trump. It’s because people genuinely love Biden. Not the far left, and not the youth, and not Twitter … but those demographics don’t influence elections as much as they think they do. Standard, non-Twittery Americans really like Biden. And that’s why he’s polling so well.

I’m seeing early signs that Biden may get a Jimmy Carter-esque reputation for being decent. (In this comparison, Trump is Nixon. An impeached president with poor morals that put the country through hell for his own personal gain. Fitting!)

Another big story this week is the absolutely stunning amount of early voting numbers that are coming in:

I’m also seeing increasing evidence that people are starting to calm down slightly about a stolen election. Yes, we’re still terrified. Yes, we’re still waiting for more dirty tricks and yes we know election night is going to be stressful and full of state-sponsored disinformation campaigns. We get it. But as a whole, I feel like people are feeling slightly more confident that the numbers are too overwhelming for Trump to successfully try anything.

There are other stories, like the stalled stimulus bill or Trump’s fizzling October surprises. Or the fact that Biden recording another record-breaking fundraising month, bringing his total to $750,000,000 since August 1st, and far outstripping Trump. But none of them really matters compared to the biggest story in the world right now, which James Carville wrote an absolute stunner about this week. James Carville is my favourite political strategist, and has been since the 90s. But even considering how much I love him and his thinking, this article stood out.

I usually end this series by saying one final thing and then saying that’s the good news. Today the good news is in that article, titled A Crusade for Something Noble, and I want every person in the world to read it. Read up, and I’ll see you next week!



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