All You Need To Know #21
The good news this week is that nothing has changed since last week. Trump desperately needs a new story, a diversion, a gaffe, a scandal, anything at all to somehow close the gap. But it didn’t happen this week.
Two weeks ago, 538 put Trump’s chances at 14%. Last week his chances were 13%. This week his chances are 12%. The graphs tell a pretty clear story:
What about RealClearPolitics? It’s a bit more positive for Trump, according to them. Last week he was down 4.5% in the battlegrounds and now he’s down 3.8%. Let’s analyse these numbers a bit.
Within these six swing states, Biden only needs to win the three where he’s polling highest. Here’s his path to victory and his polling leads:
Other odds and ends
- The candidates had a final debate. It won’t change much.
- Trump is trying to make Hunter Biden the October surprise. So far it hasn’t done a whole lot outside the right wing.
- Early voting continues to break records. One question is whether Democrats are using all of their voting power early only to have Republicans show up in person on Election Day and erase the gains. That doesn’t appear to be the case so far. Good data here.
- Covid is flaring up in a “third wave” right now. America will soon pass its all-time worst day, probably in the next week.
- Trump fundraising has collapsed. Here’s a graph that explains just how badly he’s doing.
Introducing Jacinda & Joe
These last ten days in the 2020 Presidential Election are going to be a bit tedious. Trump will keep throwing mud. Biden will keep being ahead. There might be minor swings, but I don’t expect big ones. The number of undecided voters is small and the number of early voters is record-breaking. So I don’t expect a lot more analysis necessary until we pass Election Day. And at that point, the good news will hopefully speak for itself.
So I’ve started a new publication called Jacinda & Joe where I analyse the current state of play for both Jacinda Ardern in New Zealand and Joe Biden in America. They’re both leaders of centre-left parties, contending with an animated and frustrated left wing, and they’re both about to put together an agenda after both scoring big victories and mandates. Jacinda already won hers, of course, and we’ll see if Joe can get his! Follow along here: