This presidential election will be studied for a long time, because it could be Donald Trump’s last attempt at grasping power. And this week in particular was a doozy. So let’s first get on the same page about how the election has gone recently right up until the moment Kamala Harris picked Tim Walz yesterday.
- Trump was winning in the polls, Biden wasn’t breaking through
- Biden had a horrible debate
- Trump survived an assassination attempt
- Trump picked JD Vance and had a triumphant RNC
- Biden dropped out
- Harris united the Democratic party effortlessly
- Harris is now beating Trump nationally and across swing states
- Yesterday Harris picked Tim Walz, who is widely respected
How the polls are looking
The race is close, but if it were held today, Harris would win. If she continues making inroads as she has been, she won’t just recover the voters Biden was losing, she could reconstruct the winning Obama coalition. Part of the difference is that Harris is fresh-faced, joyful, and positive compared to Trump being old, angry, and negative. Part of it is that Harris hasn’t hit her ceiling yet, whereas Trump absolutely has. There’s a lot more analysis to get into here, but we can just say that Harris is running a better campaign and offering something the electorate wants more than Trump.
Here are some snapshots from polling averages.
First let’s look at Nate Silver’s moving average for the national vote.
But remember, the national vote doesn’t mean anything. What really matters is how Harris is doing in swing states like PA (up by 1%), WI (up by 1.4%), and MI (up by 2.4%). If those numbers hold, that’s the ballgame. Harris wins.
Next we’ll look at the widely criticised RealClearPolitics, who have a well-understood right-leaning bias. The polling for Harris has swung so hard that even RCP is showing that Trump is losing. That’s hilarious and shows the depth of the hole Trump has found himself in.
And here’s 270towin.com. They see a 2.4% national lead for Harris, plus leads in the three states she needs to win: Wisconsin (0.8%), Michigan (1.7%), and Pennsylvania (0.3%).
Some additional thoughts
So that’s how the horse race is looking. But I’m looking beyond this week and thinking more holistically about Trumpism, the future of the GOP, and the future of America as a whole. So read this next!
