All You Need To Know is a series I ran for my friend in 2020 where I tracked how the presidential campaign was going week by week. I haven’t kept it up during 2024, but I did write one last month.
The state of polling
Biden only stepped down two days ago, so we’ll need to wait for high quality polling to filter its way through the system. I saw one poll yesterday that said Trump was ahead by 2, within the margin of error. I saw a poll today that says Harris is ahead by 2, within the margin of error. So we simply don’t have solid data. But do we have educated guesses? We do!
Kamala Harris hit the ground running
Harris was seen as a political under-achiever for a long time. Her campaign in 2020 didn’t go great, then she disappeared in the Biden administration. So many of us held our breath as she reintroduced herself to the electorate. And I think by any measure, her stump speeches have been seen as successful. She has a line about how her career was spent bringing criminals to justice — sex offenders, fraudsters, people who run fake colleges — and how she knows Donald Trump’s type. She’s setting up a “prosecutor versus the felon” split screen dynamic.
But it’s not just that. She’s black, she’s Asian, and she’s a woman. In a world where abortion and IVF has come under attack, she’s a great messenger for women’s rights. In a world where anti-Asian and anti-Black racism feel like an existential threat to too many Americans, she’s a symbol. In a campaign that felt like a grudge match between two uniquely weak candidates, Harris is coming in like a breath of fresh air.
Kamala Harris broke all-time fundraising records
If you’re wondering if I’m goosing the numbers to help hype up Kamala, I’m not. The campaign reported $81 million of dontations in 24 hours, and $100 million within 36 hours, an all-time record. Harris tapped into something that goes beyond vibes. Objective dollar amounts help tell the story.
Biden and Trump are more impressive than people think
Some people say “really, are these the two best men in all of America?” And I get the joke, but I think it misses the point. If you rank every single American’s foreign policy knowledge and experience from first place to last place, Biden would indeed be at the top of the list. He has personal relationships with most heads of state. He’s been doing this a long time. Even his political opponents agree he knows what the heck he’s doing.
And then there’s Trump. It’s easy to write Trump off, but he’s Steve Jobs, PT Barnum, and Don Draper wrapped into one. He’s managed to build a political base that will go down in history as some of the most fervent, loyal, powerful ever. That doesn’t happen by accident. If you rank every American’s ability to build a political party from scratch in their own image, yes, Donald Trump would be at the top. There’s no one close.
So yes, these are the two best candidates we have, when you rate them against their different metrics. Trump built a party. Biden actually is the most knowledgeable foreign policy guy we have. And yet hey’re deeply, historically unpopular. They’ve hit their popularity ceilings. Their only hope is for the other guy to stay in the race. Which is sort of funny.
Biden and Trump are both weaker than people think
Nikki Haley made a good point a few months ago. She said whichever party retired their 80 year old candidate would win the election, and she’s right. I cannot think of a single Democrat that can’t win against Trump, and I can’t think of a single Republican that can’t win against Biden. I know those are big words, so pull up a chair and let me game it out for you.
The popular vote doesn’t matter. And around 46 states don’t matter either. A soggy bag of flour would beat Trump in California, and a broken umbrella would beat Biden in Texas. I’m not exaggerating. That’s how divided the country is. You can completely ignore every detail other than party affiliation and predict almost everything at the federal level.
So then you focus on the states that do matter. As I said a few weeks ago, the best places to focus are Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. And in those states you find what are called “double haters,” people who don’t like either of the options. In 2020, Biden won over the double haters. In 2024, Trump is running ahead with the double haters. But like Haley said, if you remove one of the 80 year old candidates, suddenly the double hater numbers plummet. Suddenly there’s a fresh face. Suddenly Trump looks like the only old one in the race. Suddenly he’s the only guy. Suddenly some daylight opens up. Indies love that daylight. Indies want a new choice.
Trump is only powerful when he’s going up against Biden. Biden is only powerful going up against Trump. Now that Trump has someone new, he’s screwed.
The Trump team is freaking out
There was a recent article called something like This Is Exactly What Team Trump Feared. And you don’t have to take the journalist’s word for it. You can watch Trump posting on Truth Social, or see his surrogates on the airwaves. The right is really upset with this, because they really thought the election was locked up. They were already measuring the curtains for the Oval Office. And now this?
All the reporting I’ve seen about the RNC said they’d never seen a higher level of confidence in any convention, ever. Team Trump was riding high on an assassination attempt, Biden’s horrible performance, and legal cases breaking in Trump’s favour. They were positive they were going to win. I’ve seen jokes that Biden accidentally rope-a-doped the Trump campaign. It was terrifying to live through, and I don’t think it was done on purpose, but the end results are very rope-a-dope. Next comes the knockout.
Let’s get this straight: Biden wasn’t pushed out
I’ve seen a lot of people express frustration about how Biden was “pushed out.” Some go further and say it was by billionaires. Or they say they hate that their choice was ripped out of their hands. That’s not what happened.
Joe Biden was unpopular. He was so unpopular that deep blue Virginia was in play this year. He was headed for an absolute landslide loss. So let’s say you’re George Clooney, who loves Joe and loves Democrats, but you meet with Biden in California and you’re left shaken by what you saw. Or say you’re Obama, reporting the same thing. Or multiple journalists. Donors. Everyone in congress. Everyone saw it, which is why his staff tried to reduce his public facetime. And then the debate happened. And that was game over. Because he was doing a bad job and everyone saw it. Live.
Reserve “pushed out” for corporate raiders who take a company that is succeeding and sack upper management. What happened to Joe is more like when you have to have a conversation with your elderly parents about how they can’t drive the car anymore. When your skills drop below a certain level, people notice. When your inability to let go plunges the United States into a Project 2025 nightmare, yeah, donors (who don’t owe you anything) might say something. Voters (who don’t owe you anything) might not vote for you. Citizens (who don’t owe you anything) tell pollsters that you’re too old. That’s how Democracy works. Biden is not a king.
Biden was trying to run out the clock, a la Ruth Bader Ginsberg. But then, according to the reporting I saw, he saw that his path to victory had narrowed to zero. Faced with that he did the honourable thing and choose to leave. Again, this is how democracy works. Only kings get to stay in power without support, and we don’t have kings.
The vibe shift
I follow one person online who had a similar shift to a lot of people I know:
- Super upset about Biden being “pushed out” by “billionaires”
- The day Biden stepped down, still upset
- 5 hours later, said he’d fight for Kamala Harris
- One day later he was the biggest Kamala Harris fan on the internet
I saw another person who went through a similar process, with one additional detail. He’s now admitting that Biden was going to lose, and while he hated the process that got us here, he’s pretty excited now.
I’ve seen a lot of people compare the vibes to 2008, which seems pretty accurate to me. The left is relieved and ready to fight. The right is despondent. Speaking of sad sacks, let’s talk about JD Vance.
JD Vance is unpopular
I saw someone mention that JD Vance is who you pick if you don’t think you can possibly lose. He brings nothing to the ticket, and has some real downsides. Now there are rumblings that Trump regrets his choice, because if he had picked Haley, he’d shore up the indie vote, and blunt Kamala’s strength with women. But nope, they nominated JD Vance and (best I can tell) they’re stuck with him, legally-speaking. Oops.
My prediction
We have 3 states to get over into the Democratic column in the next 100 days. Things will go up and down. We’ll look back at these first few days as a wonderful honeymoon period before all the noise and mud slinging returned. But even through all that, flubs on the stump, good days for Trump, and the rest of it, I do think Kamala Harris will win. The odds are better than 50/50 right now.
The assignment used to be “we can’t let Trump win.” But with Kamala Harris on the scene, a lot of people see a new mission: let’s get this talented, accomplished, powerful women into the White House. It’s nice to be voting for something this time, instead of just voting against Trump. I think that vibe shift is going to be enough to beat him for good.
