How the Next Few Years Look
I’m briefly un-retiring from talking about politics
I’m the guy who recorded a short video in 2016 explaining exactly how the Democrats were going to take power back in 2018, and that’s what happened. I’m the guy who wrote How the 2020 Election Will Go and got it right. (Yes, including unpopular Biden winning the primaries.) I’m wrong a lot, but certain political realities are easier to guess than others, and I’m feeling pretty confident about these.
And I’ve got some bad news.
The Republicans will win the governer’s race in Virginia
It’s a toss up, meaning the front-runner will lose. Democrats will all freak out.
Biden won’t get his bills
I’m not going into get into the blame game, but Biden’s bills won’t pass. Maybe smaller versions will, and everyone will be upset with each other.
Roe is dead
We saw this coming a few decades ago. The Supreme Court has a strong conservative bent, so abortions will be made more restrictive.
The Democrats will get washed out in 2022
We already know they’re losing the House. I haven’t even seen the numbers for the Senate, but let’s assume they lose there as well. That means Biden’s chances of passing things go from low to zero. If you think Manchin is too conservative, wait until we get Mitch McConnell back in the driver’s seat.
Biden remains an unpopular president
Without victories, it’s hard to explain to the American people we he should stick around.
Harris remains an unpopular vice president
There’s no cavalry waiting for Harris to get her numbers up. They’ll stay low and go lower throughout her Vice Presidency.
2024 will be intense
I don’t know if Trump will run. I don’t know if Biden will run. But whoever runs, the momentum will be for “change” which means a Republican victory. And even if it’s not a Republican victory, they will contest and throw doubt into the entire process. It’s going to be intense.
I have mostly stopped writing political essays and predictions, but these seem pretty clear. The sooner we can emotionally prepare for these changes and challenges, the better. Heck, I’m famous for my optimism. I wrote “And Now the Good News” to explain that many trends are better than they seem.
But I also know how to look at data. And this is what the data tells us.