If Trump Loses, Thank Women
We all know that Harris polls better with women, and Trump polls better with men. The math is pretty straight-forward. If men and women vote 50/50, and Trump has a 3 point advantage with men and Harris has a 4 point advantage with women, that’s a +1 lead for Harris. (These are invented numbers to make a point)
But there are some other factors at play. First, women vote more than men. So let’s say it’s 55% women to 45% men. That means for every 1000 votes, if 550 are women and 450 are men, Trump needs to win 1.89 more men per one woman Harris wins. (Again, these are made up numbers to illustrate a point)
Another issue is voter enthusiasm. Trump’s enthusiasm numbers have been lagging, whereas Harris’ are high. Telling a pollster you love a candidate is one thing. But actually getting in a car, driving to the polling place, filling out a ballot, and putting it in a box is a fair amount of effort. The best way to estimate that is with enthusiasm numbers, and on that front Trump isn’t looking great.
I don’t know if Trump will win or not. I do know this: no matter what, he’ll claim he won. And it’s highly likely they’ll delay counting to attempt to send the vote to the House of Representatives, where Trump will be crowned the winner. That’s a terrifying thought.
In a scenario where Harris wins, I think back to what my friend told me in July. She stated, confidently, that there’s a whole women’s network that people don’t understand enough about. She stated, confidently, that Harris will win in the end. Because women understand. And have a plan.
I hope in the future we’ll look back at everything and it will feel as obvious then as it did to my friend in July: of course women will power Harris to a victory. How could they not? The enthusiasm is there, the stakes are there, and the assignment is clear.
*Also noteworthy: Trump’s support with men has also decreased. It’s not just more women running from Trump. It’s more men running towards Harris. Both are going to be necessary for a victory.
