There’s no one like Trump. And that’s really good news.
There’s no one like Trump
There’s no one in America that has Trump’s ability to say literally anything and not lose any support. No one has his rabid fans, or his showmanship. There’s no one like him, and that’s really good news for his political enemies. Because it means once he is defeated, there’s no one that can replace him, which means Trumpism will die.
That’s my thesis. Now I’ll back it up.
The sad search for a Trump replacement
There’s a pervasive line of thought in politics about how Trump broke everything and now there’s no way to put the genie back in the bottle. Trump has broken so many customs, suggestions, and laws that something is irrevocably broken. I agree with that premise, but that doesn’t mean that any politician can act with impunity from now on. Only Trump can.
Take Ron DeSantis, the once-popular governor of Florida. We all decided he was going to take the Trump playbook, execute it with more discipline, and be Democrats’ worst nightmare. But it turns out he was awkward, stiff, and had all the charm of wedgie.
Then came Vivek Ramaswamy, who had the smirking swagger and cruelty of Trump, but voters just didn’t like him. It turns out you need something else – something Trumpian – to pull off the act. Whatever it is, Ramaswamy doesn’t have it. (his skin color doesn’t help with some of Trump’s base, either)
Next we saw JD Vance, whose main contribution to political discourse is to take mainstream policies like a tax break for children and flip it around by saying we should punish people who don’t have kids. Same concept, just reversed to be as outrageous and unpopular as possible.
The only reason Nikki Haley stood out is because she wasn’t like Trump. But in the end, the GOP wants Trump, not a watered-down version of him or someone like Haley who openly criticises him. This is a pattern that will continue until he dies. And he will die. But first, he’s under real legal jeopardy. And that’s gonna make things tough for the GOP.
Trump is fighting a lot of indictments
An overlooked fact: Trump is due to be sentenced on his 34 felonies on September 18th. Most people don’t expect actual jail time, but anything is possible from fines to community service to probation. Whatever happens will be a big news story about two weeks before election day, and after early voting has already begun. Voting season is not a good time to be in the news as a literal criminal.
But then there are his other cases. I can’t claim to know which of Trump’s charges will stick and which won’t, but they’re all serious. In the classified documents case, anyone other than Donald Trump would already be in prison for the rest of their life. These are not small issues that lead to slaps on the wrist, they’re as serious as a heart attack. If he loses the election, the last years of his life are going to be even worse than how the last four have gone. Which, let’s be clear, have been pretty hellish for him.
Trump is not immortal
Trump is not a healthy man, he has a lot of stress, and he’s pushing 80. His death will come sooner rather than later. The likelihood that he is alive, free, and a compelling candidate to swing voters in 2028 is very low, if not zero. He’s only barely palatable to mainstream voters in 2024, and his mental deterioration is only going to continue, if not accelerate.
The policies of the right are not popular
I’ve written about this before, and don’t want to go dig up all my research again. So I’ll just broadly say that if you take a mainstream point of view in America, it’s likely the GOP has advocated loudly for the opposite. They want tax cuts for the rich. They want to cut funding for schools. They don’t want affordable health care. They don’t want gun control. They don’t just want to ban access to birth control and abortion, they also want to ban IVF. They’re extreme, and extremely unpopular.
The Republican party is changing significantly
We are witnessing a rare event in US politics: a party changing what it stands for. They used to be pro-intervention in other countries, and now they’re isolationist, to the point of letting Ukraine fall to Russia. They used to be anti-union, and now they’re attempting to be more friendly to workers, not that most dues-paying members are actually buying it. But most of all, the party stands for whatever Donald Trump decides. So what happens when Trump gets in more legal trouble, or even dies? What will they stand for? How can another leader emerge?
What happens next (before his death)
Trump and JD Vance are deeply unpopular politicians who are pushing deeply unpopular messages. They will continue slipping and falling behind Harris and Walz. The debates will not help them. Trump’s sentencing will not help him. (His fans will say they’re now even more motivated to vote for him, but it’s all talk. People saying that we're already going to vote for him, but actual independents don’t like voting for felons.)
Election day will happen. Harris and Walz will win. Trump will unleash a massive broadside against the political system, claiming everything was rigged. He’ll have “poll watchers” stationed all across the country to intimidate voters and the vote counters. People will die. Conspiracies to falsify voting records will be clumsily be carried out and in time will be prosecuted. The time between election day and inauguration day is going to be challenging and difficult. But in the end, Harris will be president and Trump will be the man who lost two elections back to back.
Then all of Trump’s cases will wind their way through the courts. With about 1400 days until the 2028 election, he won’t be able to delay long enough to push them beyond the election. He’ll be found guilty in some cases and not guilty in others. He might get jail time, he might not. But one thing is true: he will never, ever let go of his grip on his base. He will not step aside. He will not stop attacking his perceived enemies. He will weigh in during the midterms and kneecap perfectly good GOP candidates for not being loyal enough. He will be a chaos agent, even from prison, for the rest of his sad life. And it will be the gift that keeps on giving to Democrats.
Long may he live.
What happens next (after his death)
The details here get murky. Him dying of a heart attack in 2025 is very different than him dying in hospice in 2038. For this exercise, let’s say he dies in 2027. Long enough for all his cases to be brought to trial and resolved, but not long enough to run for president again. Here’s what happens after that.
Some percentage of people are going to be angling for his role by acting like him. They will all fail the same way DeSantis, Ramaswamy, and Vance have. Gloriously, embarrassingly, and without an ounce of shame. But some percentage of Republicans will take an approach closer to Nikki Haley, where they try to return to what the GOP used to stand for before Trump. But will it work? I’m doubtful. If you take the Republican platform, strip out the chaos, hatred, and racism you’re left with … a Democratic platform. I’m not sure a Republican can win in 2028 by being a Democrat Lite. Not after they’re used to the hard liquor of Trump worship.
Then there’s the Trump family themselves. The Trump name will continue to mean something for generations, like the Kennedys. I don’t see any of the Trump children able to pull off what their dad did. Except one. I think Ivanka Trump could make something happen. And I think she’ll try.
Really, 100 days?
To be clear, I’m not saying racism, hatred, and dumb policies will suddenly disappear on election day. And Donald Trump himself certainly will not. But in 100 days, we’ll have delivered yet another decisive message to Trumpism: America isn’t buying it any more. You can keep trying, but only if you want to keep losing.
And that’s assuming he’s going to weasel out of all of his legal trouble. And I can tell you, without a doubt, he will not.
Unless he beats Harris in November. Which he won’t. Which is why Trumpism will die in 100 days.
