Read This When Trump Wins
It’s October 26, 2024, and right now it looks like a toss-up, which favours Donald Trump. If America elected presidents based on the popular vote, Harris would have a slight edge. But since America elects presidents based on states, and the top five swing states are all within the margin of error, with Trump showing some momentum, the odds are in Trump’s favour.
I don’t need to reiterate how bad a Trump win would be. He openly wants to be a fascist strongman dictator, and his next administration would prize loyalty to him above anything else. Most of his cases (but not his 34 convictions in NY) would disappear overnight. Ukraine would fall. The Supreme Court would move even further right, with young fascist idealogues replacing the elderly ones. It would be a catastrophe, and I think most people understand that. People like me go further, and wonder if we’ll even have a democracy when Trump is finally gone. So let’s talk about the flip side of a Trump win. What next, and how to fight back.
Republican policies aren’t popular
This isn’t just my opinion, it’s supported by facts. Look at how Americans feel about access to birth control, gun control, renewable energy, taxing the rich, legalisation of cannabis, lifting the minimum wage, voting accessibility, lowering health care costs, and defunding public schools. Then compare those findings to the Republican agenda. Republican ideas are not popular.
Trump is not popular
Even Trump’s biggest fans can’t imagine a world where he gets significantly more popular in a second term. He has “low ceiling” and “high floor” as they say in polling. This will not change, because Trump does not change.
Republicans have lost the popular vote 9/10 times in 36 years
George W Bush won the popular vote in 2004, on the back of 9/11. But Republicans candidates have lost the popular vote every single other time.
Governing is different from complaining
Trump is really good at saying everything sucks. But once he’s in power, people expect him to deliver results. This is where Republicans are often like the dog that catches the car. The last 20 years have shown that when they’re in power, they don’t actually do much. And people notice.
Without the House, the GOP can’t pass laws
If Trump wins, he’ll be able to sign executive orders. But without the House and Senate, they can’t pass actual laws. If Trump retains his position but Republicans don’t control the House, it’ll be the first time that has happened in 44 years. And it’ll hamstring his administration significantly.
Midterm elections (nearly) always harm the party in power
Obama swept into power in 2008 and suffered a humiliating midterms defeat in 2010. Clinton swept into power in 1992 and the Democratic 1994 midterm losses were legendary, putting Republicans back into power for the first time in 40 years. Trump swept into power in 2016 and the backlash to him is why his party lost 41 seats, the worst GOP loss since 1974.
2026 will destroy Republicans
Take an unpopular guy, with unpopular policies, from an unpopular party, have him run the country into the ground for two years, then have his party run for re-election. It will not go well for Republicans, to say the least.
2028 Republicans will be even less popular than today
I don’t think Trump will live until 2028, because he’s very old and unhealthy. But imagine that he does make it that far. If you think politics are too intense and mean-spirited today in 2024, wait until you see the 2028 Trump Party. It’s safe to say it will be even less popular. The backlash will be even greater.
You can’t replace Trump
People like to imagine that once Trump dies, Trumpism will live on in another vessel. They used to say Pence would be worse, now people are saying JD Vance will be worse. I completely disagree. There’s no one like Trump. He spent decades building a brand and an image, and getting forged in the heat of controversy after controversy after controversy. You can’t recreate that overnight.
I wrote about this more in Trumpism Will Die in 100 Days, but that’s the summary. Of course conservative ideas will live on. Of course Trump changed the GOP permanently. But no, we will never see another person who is able to say literally anything without losing their base. Certainly not JD Vance, Rubio, DeSantis, or Haley. Trump’s superpower will die with him. And that will be soon, due to his age and health.
Reiterating the danger
Please don’t read this article and think I have a blasé attitude about all of this. I am terrified that American democracy cannot survive four more years of Trump. It will be a disaster. He is a textbook definition of a fascist, and he’s making millions of people believe that democracies run best with a dictator running the show. This is a dangerous nightmare that I wish we weren’t having to live through.
But we can still fight back, like we successfully did from 2016–2018. This man is unpopular, unfit, and from a deeply unpopular party trying to pass deeply unpopular policy ideas. As long as we still have midterms and elections, the backlash can and will move the country past Trumpism. It might just take long than we were hoping for.
